Former President Donald Trump’s once-ironclad grip on White working-class Americans appears to be slipping in key battleground states, according to recent polling data.
- According to a new New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in early August, Trump’s lead among White non-college-educated voters has narrowed from 26 points to 13 points since May.
- Meanwhile, Democratic contender Kamala Harris shows unexpected strength within the White demographic, particularly in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- This shift comes after President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit from the 2024 race, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. It also comes after a failed assassination attempt, which many believed would help Trump rally his base.
By the Numbers: The poll served as a window into the minds of the White voters, who are now believed to trust Harris more with certain issues.
- Trump leads Harris by 13 points (53% to 40%) among White non-college-educated voters when third-party candidates are included.
- 38% of white non-college-educated voters now believe Harris would handle the economy better, up from 26% who said the same about Biden in May.
- Trump’s economic support in this demographic dropped from 69% to 60%.
Why It Matters: Support from America’s politically disenfranchised White working-class played a crucial part of Trump’s base, propelling him to electoral victory in 2016.
- Erosion in this support could spell trouble for his 2024 prospects, especially in key swing states.
In the headlines: Several factors could be playing into this sudden loss of support from the White community, including Trump’s choice for VP, as well as his continued pandering to non-White voters and their issues.
- Thiel-funded JD Vance, Trump’s pick for running mate, has proved wildly unpopular. Democratic attacks on the Ohio senator are working to reduce Vance’s net favorability from -7 to -11 points, polls show. Vance has taken fire for his “weird” political stances and apparent lack of Charisma compared to Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
- Trump’s 2024 campaign has also reportedly shifted focus to Black voters, “aggressively” courting them in a bid to peel them away from Democrats.
- The confusing move by the ostensibly “law and order” Trump is sending mixed signals to White voters, even as Trump promises a return to proven police crime-fighting techniques like “stop and frisk.”
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