Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition suffered heavy losses in two regional elections held in eastern Germany on Sunday.

• Populist parties on the right and left garnered around half the votes in the regional elections held in Thuringia and Saxony.

Driving the news: The nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on track for victory in Thuringia with 30.5-33.5% second place with in Saxony 31.5% according to exit polls from ARD and ZDF public television. The best performance for a nationalist party in Germany since World War II.

• The new “left conservative” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, also took up to 16% of the vote in Thuringia and 12% in Saxony adding further complications towards creating coalition governments which can exclude AfD.

By the numbers: Scholz’s coalition, comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP), managed only about 15% of the vote in each state.

• The FDP failed to cross the 5% threshold to enter either regional parliament, while the Greens also fell short in Thuringia.

• The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the only mainstream party to perform well, winning in Saxony and coming in second in Thuringia.

Zoom out: Support for the three ruling parties has plummeted to record lows in the wake of a weakening economy and anger over continued mass immigration.

• Over a week ago, a deadly knife attack by a in Solingen left three people dead and eight others seriously wounded sparking anger nationwide.

• The suspect is a 26-year-old Syrian national who was previously due for deportation after his asylum application was rejected

Why it matters: The results are a significant blow to Scholz and his struggling government, underscoring the risks it faces ahead of the next national election in just over a year.

• Another regional election in Brandenburg, which surrounds the capital Berlin and includes Scholz’s Potsdam constituency, looms in three weeks.